A Quick Look At Commodity ETFs

I’ve been a student of only a single market recently - the stock market … it’s an easy problem to fall into.  I become a father for the first time and have less than zero time to research much less write, and inevitably I get tunnel vision.  This is of course against the very premise of my market studies.  I want to learn from all markets.

So tonight I will look at the charts of several commodities.  I’ll look into gold and silver in the precious metals and oil because everyone talks about oil.  I will also take a look at the Rogers International Commodity Index (^RCT).  Jim Rogers set this up and it is a decent proxy for the commodity market as a whole.  Click on the charts to view the gallery and scroll across

SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) - gold may not look too healthy, but I’ve seen a pretty reliable signal for a decent trade - the MACD.  Then the fast line crosses over the signal line, this has recently been a good buy signal.  We are close to a cross over now.  This does not mean we’ll see a 10% pop in gold, because those prior pops occurred when gold was in an uptrend.  We are in a minor down trend in gold at the moment.

iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) - silver has been more erratic than gold and less reliable in the signal department.  The resistance lines are mounting, however look for support around 11.50.  If that holds, there may be a turn around in the metal.

Elements Roger Intl Commodity ETN (RJI) - there are reasons to like and to dislike this for a trade.  First, it appears to be bouncing off of its upward sloping 50 dma.  Second, it does appear that a right shoulder of a head-and-shoulder bottom may be forming.  Don’t count your chickens before they hatch however.  Stochastics, MACD and volume all tell a bearish story.  Well … maybe not volume.  Today we saw lower volume on an up day than the previous down day’s volume.  I worded that poorly, but we saw a similar pattern back in late December and it was followed by a big run up in price.  Who knows?

United States Oil ETF (USO) - oil is something that I doubt I will ever trade well.  Perhaps this is still the equity tunnel vision speaking but we’ve seen oil go up in a down stock market, up in an up stock market and down in an up-but-toppy stock market.  That to me is something I’ll just stay away from.  However, keep an eye on the stochastics - if they should cross over in a bullish fashion and break above that down trend, we may have a bullish trade on our hands.

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