Goldman Sachs Goes Bold By Forecasting $45 Oil

Goldman, once warning of $200 oil, sees $45 in 2009 | Business | Reuters.

It look like the analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS) have learned their lesson in hindsight in regards to their $200 oil prediction. Their new prediction is within a $1.00 of where oil is currently trading. To bad they didn’t pick the $45 number 8 months ago!

To protect themselves further they should issue a standard deviation along with the prediction. A nice fat SD and they can claim accurate foresight no matter which way oil goes from here.

The article actually has the prediction of oil falling to $30 before recovering to average $45 for all of 2009.

A little research shows that GS predicted $200 oil within 2 years in early May when is was about $125. Oil peaked at about $150 a little over 1 month later. Contrarians might see this new prediction as a sign of soon to be rising oil prices.

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