Analysts Were Wrong! So New Predictions Predicted

My favorite quote so far today:

The analyst who projected $200 oil should have lopped off a zero.

Commodities Collapse: Fast, Big and Still Going - WSJ.com.

The WSJ article linked above (sub. required) show how wrong the analysts were on the commodities bubble then gives some new predictions on how far down (much farther, of course) the prices will fall. Then they compare the commodities bubble to the dot com bubble to get parallels on price losses.

If I remember correctly many of the dot com bubble stocks never had any real revenues or profits and were just over sold ideas. Commodities are a real part of the world wide economy and have significant supply constraints. I believe price recoveries in many commodities will come pretty soon. Just my opinion.

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Comment by jlounsbury59

2008-12-04 17:48:53

In a comment on Seeking Alpha in July (when oil was about $140) I predicted that oil would see $150 and $50 within the nest 2-3 years and $50 would come first. Nothing brilliant - just a wild guess, proven by the fact that I have not traded oil all the way down.

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