Oil Price Predicted To Reach Crisis Proportions In 2010

A well-respected Dutch consultancy supported by substantial corporate interests including Shell has issued a report that warns of severe oil price shocks starting in 2010.  As my readers know, I have been suggesting a similar time frame for severe oil shortages based on my reading of predictions for supply constraints by many analysts and by the Wikipedia Megaprojects works.

I have not analyzed the report in depth but my reading of the summary found aspects that were confusing.    For example, the report blames Mexico and Russia but not Nigeria for failing to fully exploit their oil reserves.  It points to Iraq as the country with the greatest potential to increase supply in the medium term, but it fails to focus on technological developments that could rapidly move the world’s transportation system toward electronic propulsion.

The report is largely concerned with the global financial system, its dislocations due to oil transfer payments, and the possibilities for recycling those funds.

Here is a news report about the Dutch report:

Dutch report warns of oil crisis in 2010

Wednesday 30 July 2008

A sustained period of worldwide oil scarcity will begin sooner than generally forecast and could spark off military conflicts in Africa, according to the Dutch Clingendael institute for international relations, reports Wednesday’s Volkskrant.

According to Clingendael, the oil shortage will begin to bite in 2010, five years earlier than predicted by the International Energy Agency.

The consequences are outlined in Clingendael’s report entitled Oil turbulence in the next decade.

pdf version:  http://www.clingendael.nl/publications/2008/20080700_ciep_energy_jesse.pdf

Posted in Categories: Commodities, Contributor, External Research.

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