Royal Bank Of Scotland Issues Crash Alert And BIS Warns Of Great Depression

Gold closed at $884.20 in New York yesterday and was up $1.00; silver closed at $17.05, down 19 cents. Since then gold has again traded in a range between $880 and $890 in Asian and early European trading this morning.

Gold remains firm after the poor economic data from the U.S. yesterday which showed that housing starts and permits continue to slide, industrial production also fell and was weaker then expected. Producer prices rose by more than anticipated - the Labor Department said producer prices over the last 12 months were up 7.2 percent in May, the eighth consecutive month prices rose more than 6 percent on a yearly basis. Also, the current account deficit widened again, rising to $176.4 billion in the first three months of the year from $167.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Net financial flows into the United States fell to $124.3 billion from $213.4 billion.

With oil remaining near record highs in a narrow range between $130 and $140 a barrel and the price of commodities surging, many to new record highs, inflation pressures continue to grow.

Soybeans, corn and the benchmark CRB Commodities Index all hit new record highs yesterday. This should result in gold remaining above support at $850 and continuing in the $850 to $950 range in the ’summer doldrums’ (months of June, July and August) prior to breaking out in August (as it did in August 2007) and rechallenging $1,000 in the autumn.

As long as the Federal Reserve continues to keep real interest rates negative and money supply in the U.S. ( M3 which is the broadest and most important money supply measure) and internationally continues to surge at unprecedented rates, the dollar will remain weak and gold will remain in a bull market. Especially with macroeconomic conditions looking like a more virulent version of the stagflation of the 1970s.
Royal Bank Of Scotland Issues Crash Alert and BIS Warns of Great Depression

Global stock markets are braced for one of the worst crashes in 100 years, according to the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) credit strategy team. RBS credit strategy team, in a special report for clients, said it expects inflation to paralyse economies and spark the crash. The report advised investors to be prepared for a severe downturn in global stock and credit markets, saying the S&P 500 index is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1,050 points by September.

Mr Bob Janjuah, the report’s author is highly respected in the City after his foresighted warnings last year about the credit crisis proved accurate.

Meanwhile, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has continued to warn of a possible second Great Depression. The Bank for International Settlements, the organisation that fosters cooperation between central banks, has warned that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s. In its latest quarterly report, the body points out that the Great Depression of the 1930s was not foreseen and that commentators on the financial turmoil, instigated by the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis, may not have grasped the level of exposure that lies at its heart.

According to the BIS, complex credit instruments, a strong appetite for risk, rising levels of household debt and long-term imbalances in the world currency system, all form part of the loose monetarist policy that could result in another Great Depression.
Today’s Data and Influences

There is no U.S. data due for release today leaving the precious metals markets looking to breaking news and equity markets for direction.

Data to watch will be the Bank of England minutes for its June meeting later today which will likely show the BoE’s growing worry regarding surging inflation.
Silver
Silver is trading at $17.05/17.10 per ounce (1100 GMT).
PGMs
Platinum is trading at $2073/2083 per ounce (1100 GMT).
Palladium is trading at $460/465 per ounce (1100 GMT).

Posted in Categories: Commodities, Contributor, Eurozone, External Research, UK, USA.

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